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Rumor Has It: GOP Playing Wait And See, Brizzi To Step In After All?

Donkeyelephantdancing TDW has now heard from several sources that Republicans are waiting to find out who's running on the Democratic side in the Seventh District vacancy caucus. (That deadline is 10 a.m. tomorrow.)

After all the forms are filed, the rumored plan is that rookie State Rep. Jon Elrod will bow out, and Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will step in as the GOP consensus candidate.

Elrod declared his interest in the race months ago, but his candidacy has generated little excitement. If the whispers are true, Elrod might be able to avoid becoming a casualty of Rising Star Syndrome, whereby young'uns outgrow their political britches at record speed and then can't figure out where everybody went.

The Republican caucus is on Sunday, which gives them a little extra time to play with.

Anyone hearing the same sort of thing?

Comments

"After all the forms are filed, the rumored plan is that rookie State Rep. Jon Elrod will bow out, and Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will step in as the GOP consensus candidate."

So much for rumors.

"Snark" is certainly the determined and continual attacker and mudslinger, isn't he? Kinda pitiful, really......

Put André Carson in the same room with Carl Brizzi, and Brizzi will be the one left standing. Carson has zero gravitas or charisma.

But Carl Brizzi certainly jumped up there on the platform Election Night didn't he? It was a remarkable "Come to Jesus moment!"

"Brizzi is gunning for the Mayor's office"

Somehow I think that boat sailed last November and he failed to get on it.

It might be the first time in years I might be able to force myself to listen to Garrison...

I heard Carl is going on Garrison tomorrow morning....an announcement?

Brizzi is gunning for the Mayor's office, he wouldn't give up that almost sure thing for a hard to win Congressional seat. Plus, he's an egomaniac, he'd rather have complete control over a city then 1/535 control over the nation.

Of course liberals live all over the country. Correct me if I am wrong, but don't black voters live all over the country too? And given the information you just gave me, that less than 30% of the county's black population live in Center Township, how can you say that when people say "Center Township voters" they mean "black voters"? Perhaps that is what you mean when you say it, but I'm sure others on this thread don't appreciate you telling them what they mean when they say it.

Besides, what if they HAD meant black voters? I don't see that as a reason to get upset unless you consider something inherently bad about being black. It is a recognized demographic; there is a black caucus. I certainly wouldn't get huffy if someone had made a remark about young voters.

LMR, Are you saying that "liberal voters" only live in Center Township? I don't think you mean that either. Liberal Voters live throughout this county. Even in the southern townships. When posters condemn Center Township they are talking about Black voters and Black political figures. LMR you may not mean that. But other posters do. They (and maybe you) ignore the fact that the majority of Black voters (and Black politicians) don't live in Center Township. Less than 30% of the county's Black population live in Center. That includes less than 30% of Black voters. Center Township is an area that comprises working class and poor folks, with a smattering of wealthy, upscale residents. It's an area where non-Hispanic whites are the plurality, followed by Blacks then Hispanics. When I look at Center vote turnout, a major shortfall area is in white-majority, working class neighborhoods. Near east side, Fountain Square, and the neighborhoods south of I-70 to Troy Avenue. So, if we're gonna talk about Center Township politically, let's be real. It's a racially diverse, economically downscale democratic area. With plenty of opportunities to turnout white voters for Democrats. What are you doing, LMR to help?

What is all this about racism? Can't a black person be disliked for their policies without being judged by the color of their skin? I did not care for Julia Carson because I did not care for her policies. Does the fact that I would not have voted for because of this mean that I hate black people? Certainly not.

And maybe when people say "Center Township voters" they are not saying "black voters" but rather "liberal voters". Stop trying to infuse this political argument with racism.

Brizzi lost by 13K in the 7th CD in '06 to Melina Kennedy, Congresswoman Carson's margin was 10k...

There was an overvote in favor of Melina Kennedy...and against Carl Brizzi...

Nine, actually.

FYI: We are now up to eight Democrats filed at the Election Division with less than 10 minutes left (Rodman, Orientlicher, Mays, Sanders, Carson, McCabe, White, Pollard)

Apparently, Brizzi talked to his advisers yesterday and decided not to make a run in either the caucus or special election.

Call me crazy is on the right track. But don't count on the Marion County Dem Party. What a disaster. They aren't doing anything right. Time to regroup, perhaps? Are you guys ready to get back into the fight? Are you guys preparing for 08?

Don't believe me? Just go to their website - smiling pictures of Bart Peterson and Julia Carson. Guys, you might want to change that.

8:35: the pound-on-the-table-and-demand tactics of some Center Democratic officials, has worked well for three decades. They deliver less than they should, yet they still get the goodies.

And, the first time they taste real power, ala Council leadership, they screw it up worse than anyone could've imagined.

Ask Bart Peterson.

So, yes, sadly, out of fear or whatever, Democratic politicans in this town have for decades cow-towed to Center's demanding power brokers.

It may work just long enough to get Andre through this special election. But it can't elect him in the fall and it can't keep him there.

A focused Dem GOTV operation which asked Center to do, say, 75% of what the ring townships do, would make this a Democratic county in every single office forever.

Getting our your core vote is hard work. Folks move. People dodge you, avoid you and lie to you. But if you explain to them how power is gaiend and lost--and we have ample recent examples of each--I think it can work. It will take massive effort in Center. Massive.

But we must do it.

We'll all know tomorrow afternoon exactly who the GOP sacrificial lambs are in their Nominating Caucus...

Gee Abdul, you ruined Go Carl's day....Unless, its a masterful piece of disinformation ala Indy Undercover....

"They're politically lazy in the turnout department."

I could never understand that. When will they learn that the squeaking wheel gets the grease? Politicians don't fear groups of people that don't vote.

Carl Brizzi is not running for Congress in the 7th Congressional District.

There's a month-long 'open season' for candidacies from January 23rd to February 22nd. One can file FOR an office one day, withdraw the next, then file for another race the next, withdraw, etc. etc. etc.

In other words, during that month candidates can shilly-shally and flip-flop about whatever office they might run for. Whatever is still standing on February 22nd goes to the printers. That's the final declaration of candidacy date.

Four Democratic candidates in the Nominating Caucus (Orentlicher, Mays, Porter and Rodman) have until February 22nd to decide whether (after losing that Caucus) they then wish to throw away "safe seats" in favor of a quixotic, expensive, bruising and eventually fruitless Primary challenge to the Democratic Party.

In other words, they can run in the Caucus, lose and then file for "their" incumbent seats and be safely re-elected. I think all four will be smart enough to follow that course!

Demo you're way off base.

This isn't your decision. Once David O enters the primary for the 7th, he cannot run for the statehouse again. He's already indicated he'll do so, and that there are quality, well-funded candidates to step up in the 86th.

To Go Carl...Before boosting Brizzi, you'd better tell Tom Rose. He's filed his FEC paperwork (that means you're a really serious Congressional candidate). The others who have filed FEC papers - Elrod, Andre, David O.
To Go Carl and Petty Cash,
Quit your Center fixation. Turnout in Center has been declining, because the population in Center is declining. Estimates are that Center has lost 20/25K in population since 2000. While turnout is down in Center, turnout is up in other areas of the county. I will repeat the fact again and again. The majority of D votes in this county and in the 7th are NOT in Center. While Center is a strong D area, the bulk of D votes are in Washington, Wayne, Pike, Lawrence, Warren. It follows the spread of the Black population which has grown. Stay Center-centric, Petty and Go at your peril.

An interesting debate, to be sure. From the Democratic precint committeeperson ranks:

Carl Brizzi does scare me in a special election. Mind you, I won't vote for him, can't stand him, and think he's the Political Devil Incarnate.

But I respect his vote-getting abilities.

Whatever poster above, observed that Center Township did not turn out for Peterson two months ago, is completely right. Because there was no Julia at the top of the pyramid to crack the whip on GOTV, like she usually did. Center precincts always trail the rest of the county in turnout, and it frustrates the hell out of the rest of us. And in an off-year, it's usually embarrassingly low Center turnout. They're politically lazy in the turnout department. Nothing racist about that, Wilson--just fact.

I am completely comfortable with many of the Dem prospects. Andre makes me nervous becuase I don't know how an unseasoned campaigner wins in a special against someone like Brizzi. Maybe he can--but I am reluctant to try it, given the dynamics present now.

Many of the other D candidates have strong electoral experience against tough competition.

There are multiple sports analagies to compare, but suffice it to say, Andre is no LSU. He's more like a Ball State.

And while we love the Cards, they can't compete on a big stage in most sports.

The right-wing propaganda shill known as "Go Carl" makes a lot of assertions but never offers any actual evidence to support his claims. Show us some empirical data!

People will turn out to vote for an accomplished, articulate black man like Pollard. A machine product like Andre isn't going to turn out the vote.

"There has NEVER been a special election in Indianapolis."

Indianapolis may not have had a special election but Indiana isn't cherry to them.
This will not be Indiana's first special election.

"This election was held to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of William Hendricks whose term as representataive would not expire until March 3, 1823"
[2] Jonathan Jennings was elected.
[3] Returns are from Indiana Election Returns, 1816-1851 on page 75. Adams Township in Pike County and Floyd County was added to the total from the Indiana Election Returns.
[4] "No returns were found for Bartholomew, Floyd and Rush counties." Indiana Election Returns, 1816-1851. Pg 74-75. Returns from Floyd County were subsequently found.
[5] The August 28, 1822 edition of the Indiana Intelligencer reported 790 votes for Jonathan Jennings.
[6] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Western Sun reported 768 votes for Jonathan Jennings.
[7] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Western Sun reported 22 votes for David Floyd.
[8] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Evansville Gazette reported 1008 votes for Jonathan Jennings.
[9] The August 28, 1822 edition of the Indiana Intelligencer reported 639 votes for Davis Floyd.
[10] "The return for Adams Township, Pike county was received too late to be included". Indiana Election Returns, 1816-1851. Pg. 75.
[11] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Evansville Gazette reported 226 for Jonathan Jennings and 72 votes for Davis Floyd.
[12] Page 75 of the Indiana Election Returns incorrectly cited the August 17, 1822 edition of the Western Sun and reported 74 votes for Davis Floyd.
[13] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Evansville Gazette reported 560 votes for Jonathan Jennings.
[14] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Evansville Gazette reported 243 votes for Davis Floyd.
[15] The August 24, 1822 edition of the Western Sun reported 825 votes for Jonathan Jennings."

I think both parties will be ready.

If anyone of the dems except David O. are the candidate it cost the party nothing. Porter and Mays are in Democrat seats that could be held by democrats Rep. David O. represents a very close district where at least $750,000 has been spent the last 3 elections to get and retain the seat. David has worked very hard during those elections and I hate to see that thrown away in hopes that another candidate can be competitive in that district. The absolute most important thing in 08 is to retain the majority in the house. If David leaves that task becomes much harder.

Sadly, racism is still alive and well in Marion County. Your remarks about "Center Township voters" prove that. Prejudices die hard. Still, Julia
Carson was the first (outside of Berkeley) African-American to win in a majority-white District in a normal election. We can be proud of that achievement in Indianapolis!

Tell me Wilson how a liberal, flip floppin' Dem from Massachusetts who got swift boated beats an African-American, incumbent Congresswomen in an "urban" district in Indiana by 4-5 points?

If I'm Andre I'm not emotional about the odds and I don't think I want to risk my political future on that race! Too risky!

Sorry, Mike, I dont have all those detailed breakdowns available. I suspect Brizzi and Dickerson attracted about the same percentage of votes in the 7th but that's just an educated guess...

The NRCC has already told the local GOP that they're on their own about money for the 7th District. The DCCC will spend lavishly to preserve this Democratic seat. Special elections can get quite expensive but this is "A Democratic Year" so the resources and votes are there for the Democratic candidate.

Carl is smart enough not to get too emotional when calculating probabilities and possibilities. Why run when he knows he's very likely to lose? Failure is a blot on one's resumé ...

Wilson - You seem to have the numbers at hand - Did Dickerson do better than Carl vote wise in the 7th district in 2006 ?

Oh, and just because you don't like a completely non-qualified candidate who has the last name of a completely incompetent member of Congress (yes, despite the Rosa Parks bill), I suddenly have a hate thing with blacks and am racist. Nice work. Are you on Andre's payroll?

have you talked to Demo precinctpeople?

I did quite well in Poly Sci 101, actually. How did that Dem do in Ohio in the Special Election last month? Oh, so sorry.

It's all about the SPECIAL ELECTION. If Brizzi wins that, he wins the general. I know all you Dems are cocky when you look at the numbers, but he will dominate as the incumbent.

Turnout in a special? Less than 10%. Who's turnout would you count on? There would be a strong anti-Carson, Republican/independent vote. People are fed up with the Monroe Gray BS in this city. You have no Mayor's office and a completely dysfunctional local party.

Go back to school, Fish or Cut Bait. You need some remedial tutoring.

Go Carl,

Obviously, you flunked political science 101 and the senior level class too. There has NEVER been a special election in Indianapolis. No one knows the impact of a special election in the largest city of a state, also a state capitol and the largest media market. The unusualness of it, plus its a presidential year, means turnout could be higher than expected. Right now there are three special House elections coming up. In Illinois (Hastert's seat), Mississippi (Lott's successor's seat) and here. Two R seats and a D. Expect the GOP to spend to hold their two seats, especially Hastert's. The D's will do what they must to hold this seat. The NRCC doesn't have the cash to defend three vacancies at the same time. D's will hold the seat, with whoever is chosen. Even the candidate you hate, not because they're not qualified, but because you have a hate fixation on anything Carson (and I suspect anyone Black).

Demo, I like your logic. You sound like a friend or relative of Andre. Put Andre out to pasture in Congress, where nothing gets done. Keep David O in Indiana where he can get work done!

Carl's going to Washington where he'll get work done and enjoy the cocktail parties!

Where would David O. have the most impact the next few years. He could be one of 435 members of congress where the Dems have a good majority which is likely to grow. His votes will have little impact on the out come of issues. OR David O. could stay in the Indiana Legislature where he has been and
cast the vote to determine who the speaker would be. That very vote by David was what has stalled sjr 7, protected womens rights and stopped several pieces of legislation that were now consumer friendly. If it is about the causes that progressives belief in then David O. Should stay in the legislature. If is all about David O. then he should run for congress.

Fish or Cut Bait - a special election is way different than a general.

Peterson won "handily" in the 7th? Against the no-name Mayor? How would Andre do against Brizzi? Difference race, bud.

Where would David O. have the most impact the next few years. He could be one of 435 members of congress where the Dems have a good majority which is likely to grow. His votes will have little impact on the out come of issues. OR David O. could stay in the Indiana Legislature where he has been and
cast the vote to determine who the speaker would be. That very vote by David was what has stalled sjr 7, protected womens rights and stopped several pieces of legislation that were now consumer friendly. If it is about the causes that progressives belief in then David O. Should stay in the legislature. If is all about David O. then he should run for congress.

Brose ran against Julia in 2002, a mid-term election of a Rep president. Julia walked out of a debate with him. He ran against Julia, did not run a positive change campaign. Negative ads never work against Julia. I don't think he ran all that great of a campaign.

Andre ain't no Julia, either. Marion County voters were turned off by the funeral, the passing on of a Congressional seat. No monarchy here!

Brizzi will make it happen. Ain't no thing but a chicken wing, Wilson.

Go Carl,

My you're old school aren't you. The 7th is 30/32% Black at the 18+ level. (06 census). In the 7th, Peterson won handily. Despite losing Meridian/Kessler. It was the GOP areas outside the 7th where Peterson got killed. Brizzi also lost the 7th handily against Melina. With a stronger voter turnout than the mayoral race.

Gravy train? Moi? I've been comfortably retired for several years now. I do this for my country, not for a paycheck!

The majority of Democratic voters in the 7th District are not African-American. It looks like some enthusiastic folk assume that the politics of racial polarization will sweep Brizzi into office. The Southern Strategy of the GOP is dying out in Marion County.

Brizzi is smarter than relying on racist appeals. He counts coldly and shrewdly. Brose McVey ran a superb campaign. He lost. Brizzi will lose too. He knows it. He's a smart cookie to be sure!

Julia's "machine" didn't turn out for Bart Peterson, did they?

She might have had a machine 10 years ago, but times change, now don't they?

It's a 25% district for African Americans. That doesn't seem like 51% to me.

He'll run and win and your gravy train will end Wilson (along with a lot of you other hanger ons). He's not scared of Andre friggin Carson.

Precisely! Carl Brizzi indeed is a pro. He can count while others gush and swoon. He won't run knowing he'll lose in the 7th District. He's a smart cookie...

Go Carl,
You must be a used car salesman. Or handled the explanation of WMD's for the Bush Adm. Your analysis is as wrong as three left feet. Also, Go Carl, why do you belittle Center Township voters?? When you use that phrase you're really saying "black" voters. They live throughout the 7th District. The majority live outside Center. Your ignorance of politics is obvious. Go back to pushing lemon cars.

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