Election open thread: What will rock Indiana politics?

Since I and my political counterparts will be swamped for the next couple of days, let's get an open thread going to get us to Wednesday.  So, Step right up and give us your predictions!

In almost every election cycle there is something that happens on election day that completely shocks Indiana.  What will it be this year?  Two years ago it was the defeat of Bob Garton, 4 years ago it was the defeat of Larry Borst.  Who in Indiana will have a come from behind victory?  What's the big story (outside the presidential race) that will dominate the Indiana news on May 7th?

This thread is officially open.  Good luck to all involved in the races, see you on Wednesday!

posted by tdwblog@gmail.com

Comments

[Stop Pretending]

Hillary can't win. If only the media would stop their circus. O'Bama IS the candidate! That's a fact.

1:48 AM...I think its time to demote Butch.
DLZ, his employer (or whatever they are now called) is one of the larger contributors to Daniels campaign.

[Angry Republican]

Someone wrote:
"There is no other process that is allowed to take place. A person is allowed to vote anyway they choose to vote. And they can declare whatever ballot they want in the primary. Do otherwise or attempt to ascertain their direction or intent in the general and you ARE VIOLATING THE LAW!"

Not true. In a primary election, a voter may be challenged with regard to party.

AR

[Tuesday Morning]

Good luck Jim Schellinger, Andre Carson, Barack Obama. Let's do this.

[Mishawaka]

I cannot believe what I am reading here concerning the gubernatorial race. JLT's ground game? She must be running a 91 county strategy. As I have said before, she has next to nothing in St. Joseph County, one of the largest Democratic counties in the state.

As of 1:43am Tuesday morning, I have received no phone calls, no pieces of mail and no door to door canvassers for Jill Long Thompson. Meanwhile, I have participated in door to door and phone banks for Schellinger, I have dropped his literature in ten precincts and I have received his mailer. I am not alone here. South Bend and Mishawaka are covered with his yard signs. The only ones she has are "Another Steelworker for Jill Long Thompson". Not a lot of "Ooh, where do I get one of those?!?" value in those signs.

I just helped put Schellinger signs out at polling places in one township in St. Joe county. At over twenty polling places, no JLT signs. Where is her ground game?

"I hate losers, Petty Cash, esp in politics when they affect my life - that's why I can't stand JLT. I don't want to lose the Gov's race - it is too important to have JLT lose one more."

Do you really think if he has this much trouble with a "loser" he's gonna beat Mitch? Right now neither of these candidates have a campaign capable of getting them elected at a family reunion let alone a statewide race against a well funded incumbent. To think Jim has any more of a shot against Mitch when the residents of most rural counties will see his name for the first time today on the ballot is preposterous. Counting on the "anybody but..." vote didn't get John Kerry elected in 2004, and it isn't gonna get either of these two elected in 2008. At least people recognize Jill's campaign needs work, as yet nobody near Jim will put the damn Kool Aid down.

[FINAL SAY]

JIM SCHELLINGER
ANDRE CARSON
BARACK OBAMA

Indiana doesn't let our party, state, or nation down.

Jill over Schellinger by 6 points. With the support of people like Judy O'Bannon and Joe Kernan, Schellinger should have been the golden candidate that waltzed through this nomination battle on the backs of his supporters. However, he ran a lackluster campaign at best and failed to provide any substantive response to JLT's claims against his work at CSO.

People want Schellinger to be a much better candidate than he actually is.

On the presidential front, I'm afraid Hillary will win by 4-6 points. For Hillary, that margin will not be enough (presuming that Obama wins N. Carolina) to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to stick their neck out for her.

Even if she wins IN by a small margin, she will face more intense pressure to get out of the race. At that point, some of the leaders of the Democratic party will need to get together and urge the remaining delegates to go for Obama and end this thing.

[c]

I hate losers, Petty Cash, esp in politics when they affect my life - that's why I can't stand JLT. I don't want to lose the Gov's race - it is too important to have JLT lose one more.

I don't want Dan Burton, so I need to vote Republican. I don't want JLT, so I need to vote Democrat. I hate it that I have to declare a party during the primary!

[IndyErnie]

OBama hasn't shown the voters how he will make any changes. All we have heard is “let's make change” and nothing supportive to that claim.
America is sending Obama back to Libcity Chicago where he belongs.

Clinton isn't the answer but if she can keep a pair of pants on Bill at least she brings some experience to the White House.

Tomorrow I cross over and vote for HillBillary.

The winners will be,

Hillary
Myers
Jill
Henderson

Come November McCain will be elected anyway so this two ring circus dog and pony show doesn't matter much anyway.

[3 Cheers]

For the Parker/Bayh loser comment- stick a fork in those 2.

Democrats for change.

[DEMS IN )*]

Carson wins by 5%
Schellinger wins by 1% (Jill cries and looks for something else to run for and lose)
Obama squuuuuuuuueaks it out (Please God)

Obama = Presidential Candidate
Orentlicher = Congress (7D)
... not sure about the Governor (probably Schellinger - hopefully he can win the whole thing - we have to get rid of mitch)

whoever posted before me about Bayh being the #1 loser - correct (my prediction at least)!

By the way, who did Bayh endorse for the 7th? i saw something about both andre and myers but the thing i saw said that the myers thing wasn't real (what a weird race)

[stickler]

"you all are not use to real grassroots campaigns. Sit back voters and enjoy the ride and watch the JLT campaign ran the way campaign are suppose to ran"

WELL- IF IT'S ANYTHING LIKE YOU CONSTRUCT A SENTENCE, I WOULD SAY WE'RE ALL IN FOR A GOOD LAUGH.

Go Jim and Andre.

"Are all these Repubs who plan on voting in the Demo primary prepared to sign a statement verifying that they plan on voting for a majority of Democrats in the fall, as they could be asked to do?"

Can't do this. When a person shows up to vote, ask for their ID. They show a valid ID, you give them a ballot, R or D. There is no other process that is allowed to take place. A person is allowed to vote anyway they choose to vote. And they can declare whatever ballot they want in the primary. Do otherwise or attempt to ascertain their direction or intent in the general and you ARE VIOLATING THE LAW!

Winners - Obama, Schellinger, Carson

Losers - Evan Bayh, Dan Parker

I don't remember the last time a yard sign voted, do you? JLT has had hundreds of canvassers out around the State each and every Saturday and her volunteers have been seen at almost every Clinton and Obama event taking place around the State talking to thousands of voters at each event. A Schellinger volunteer was spotted at one (1) event. Yesterday at the city/county building in Indy where 1600 Hoosiers voted, six (6) JLT supporters, zero (0) Schellinger supporters.

You have to be willing to work in able to win and JLT simply out-worked Schellinger.

you all are not use to real grassroots campaigns. Sit back voters and enjoy the ride and watch the JLT campaign ran the way campaign are suppose to ran

[Your bartender]

I've been canvassing and calling for the past month for Barack; I couldn't even begin to know how many hours I've dedicated to the campaign. Something I think to be remarkable is the large number of people I've encountered who say they are Republicans but who truly do support Barack, not in the fraudulant & illegal Limbaugh way. I think there will be a number of vote challenges come November when those Operation Chaos Repubs ask for their ballot and it isn't for the Democrat they voted for in the primary... hopefully, starting with the maroons who are admitting they'll be doing it on blogs & such. Jeez.

Obama for President.

Schellinger for Governor.

Carson for Congress, although he did not get my vote.

"I am PRAYING that Obama pulls it off here"

I think it's very likely to happen. Indiana fell for the clever warm-fuzzy marketing of Daniels, so it won't surprise me if we're dumb enough to fall for Obama's.

[worriedhoosier]

Gubernatorial Predictions this November:

If JLT Wins Primary - Governor Mitch Daniels today easily trounced Democratic Candidate Jill Long-Thompson. Voters overwhelmingly voted to keep Incumbent Daniels, citing how Daniels used JLT's congressional voting record to convince them that Jill was much too liberal for Hoosiers.

If Jim Schellinger wins Primary - Incumbent Mitch Daniels was ousted today by Democrat Challenger Jim Schellinger. Angry over the arrogance of Daniels and the mis-management of Indiana's assetts, voters decided they wanted a candidate who listens to real Hoosier issues.

[Miller_Mom_is_a_Dem]

I agree that McGoff will finally oust the embarassing Dan Burton.

I am PRAYING that Obama pulls it off here. Observations from Hamilton County are that the Hillary supporters are all aged 50+ or bored Carmel housewives hosting Hillary parties.

I am also hoping Jim wins. Jill has seriously ticked me off by spamming me every other day, asking for cash. I finally sent a nasty email telling her because of all the spam, my vote would go to Jim. I also think she is a big loser, but that is beside the point.

[Fed Up]

We will see Dan Burton OUT of congress finally, defeated by Dr. John McGoff. Hallelieujah!

"jill has a ground game??? please! she doesn't even have her own yard signs."

Venture outside of Indy and you won't find many signs for Schellinger either. Somebody might want to point out to him that the area between Indy and South Bend has actual real live voters in it also. Talking to a newspaper reporter for 15 minutes and never coming back may count as visiting a county, but it doesn't win many votes.

[P.J.V.]

To Indiana's Voters:

I hope it has been made widely known that CNN has proved the fake video of Mickey Kantor supposedly slamming Indiana voters with outrageous slurs is a HOAX.

Here is the URL of the proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmAylYyPkiw

It was made from a video done in 1992 and nothing ugly was said in the original video. The slurs were dubbed in to make it seem like there was complete disdain for the people of Indiana now, which is totally untrue.

Please pass this info on to any of your friends who are not aware of this really rotten campaign trick.

Thank you.

[...]

jill has a ground game??? please! she doesn't even have her own yard signs.

her speech last night was terrible and her campaign, if she wins, will be the same uninspiring crap she's always done.

both NW indiana newspapers have endorsed Jim because they know he can win and because he has a plan.

Petty Cash - Jill's plan??? Don't make me laugh. she doesn't have one.

[Grassroots Politics]

To win the Governor's mansion you have to have a strong ground game. Jill Long Thompson came from behind to beat Jim Schellinger because she had an active army of supporters working day in and day out to help her through the primary. Jim Schellinger's campaign has had NO presence ANYWHERE in the State and thus, he will lose. Money and TV only get you so far Jim. No feat on the ground equals a short political career for Jim Schellinger. Destiny has failed him as he won't be the 50th Governor.

[Spoon]

Couldn't agree more about JLT- she's miserable. Jim just might pull it off.

Carson for congress. Myers comes off as too slick and seems to be corrupt.

[Blacksheep Mahern]

Are all these Repubs who plan on voting in the Demo primary prepared to sign a statement verifying that they plan on voting for a majority of Democrats in the fall, as they could be asked to do? I don't think so. I do not like the idea of the opposition party having a hand in picking our candidates. Indiana should register by party.

[Petty Cash]

"c", and others" what's with the JLT hating?

I attended last night. I judged Schellinger's speech to be fantastic. Jill's was OK...certainly not awful.

But I've read their platforms, intently, and JLT gets my vote by a whisker.

The venom here against JLT is amazing. I've been through a lot of these elections, and I understand last-minute venom. If only we'd seen that kind of spirit throughout Schellinger's campaign (minus the hate, 'cause I don't think he's got hatefulness in him).

The Schellinger I saw last night was new to me. Too little, and way too late.

I am republican but I am voting for Dr. Woody Myer. He had the courage to stand up and fight for Ryan White when nobody else would and it was unpopular. He is who we need in Congress not a legacy of incompetence.

[c]

anyone who was at the JJ dinner last night and compared the 2 gubenatorial candidates - it was not even close.

Jill looked like an unprepared college professor, deer in headlights, and read her speech monotone without looking up from her notes. Jim fired up the crowd with a passionate stump speech. His wife did a better job at speaking when she introduced him than Jill did... Everyone at my table was like, wow.

JLT may pull this off because we Democrats somehow feel warmly about candidates who lose again and again, but she would not be able to raise money as an uninspiring, tired, worn out bureaucrat, and would be defeated by Mitch Daniels almost as badly as she was against Dan Quayle some 22 years ago.

[Filmore]

Republicans won't vote considering McCain as the presumptive nominee, allowing Ron Paul supporters to sneak in quite a showing.

Obama wins popular vote causing the Hillary camp to suddenly develop a strong position against the photo-ID law.

[Wilson46201]

It already is but my fascinated stalker ( a failed lawyer) will find something else to obsess about...

If Andre loses tomorrow, will Wilson finally
then bring his abode into compliance on all of those housing code citations?

I think Mishawaka @ 11:31 is right on.

And yes 11:03 it would be great for Jen to come back to TDW too...but I will gladly and bravely give her over to Jim Schellinger's successful run to the Statehouse in November. I just hope she comes by to visit more often!

[Perry]

I hope like heck that Jim Schellinger wins, I won't be able to vote for that awful woman Jill.

I hope like heck that Obama wins, but I'm afraid he might lose by a few % points.

Andre Carson will and should win. I've been impressed with him, and just can't trust Woody Myers. That patient bill of rights thing hurts. Carson will win.

[Hoosier 4th]

I believe:

Hillary will win in delegates by one or two and lose in popular vote thereby turning her well-worn arguments on their head (O wins NC by 9, kinda like PA.)

Thompson beats Schellinger based on her Northern IN roots.

Carson wins a squeaker with 35% - Myers 33% - Orentlicher 25%.. etc..

BTW.. those involved with tonite's J&J Dinner -- awesome job! I only wish Dean had been allowed to speak before the Cands instead of squeezed between them.

Obama proved once again that he is a transformational character.. even having the majority of the room on its feet time and again.

[Mishawaka]

P.S. Obama will also win the 1st district, giving him another superdelegate.

[Mishawaka]

The big story will, of course, be the presidential race. Hillary will win Indiana, but by a whisker. I forsee a 52-48% win. Obama will do well but in the end Indiana's "Democratic Bermuda Triangle": the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional districts, will sink his chances to win the state. However, he will win the 2nd, 8th and 9th districts, giving him three more superdelegates. Also, Hillary's win will once again leave her with only a fraction of the delegates she needs to catch Obama. The amount of Republicans crossing over to support Obama will trump the number who cross over in "Operation Chaos". "Operation Chaos" will go down in a manner similar to the Bay of Pigs: overhyped, undermanned and an overall failure.

In the governor's race, Schellinger will win but also only by a whisker. He will be gracious in victory and will extend the olive branch Tuesday night but JLT will pull up short of endorsing his campaign in her concession speech.

Woody Myers will come close, as will David O, but Andre Carson will show great resiliency as he wins a tight primary.

[yatzi]

Big Story- Hoosiers get it right!

Carson Wins!

Schellinger Wins!

OBAMA WINS!

More Rs cross to vote for Obama than Hillary, giving him the state... Jill wins and Jen comes home to TDW... Carson and Burton slug it out for the biggest incument loser bragging rights.

Personally, I just want to see Mitch out of Indiana State Government and I pray out of this state. In the north people are very unhappy about the toll road. I have heard there have been three raises in tolls. The Indiana Department of Corrections is a total mess. People in the IDOC have begged and begged for three years for Mitch to get rid of the arrogant, rude, self important J. David Donahue. Mitch instead stated he was the best Correction Commissioner ever. Then there is FAAS, oh wow, those poor people. They cannot get relief! Even unemployment is a mess!

Next item up property tax. Mitch HIDE in the state house during the 2007 general assembly knowing full well that property tax was going to be a huge problem. But he was not in the mood to come out and play. Instead of being the business man he WANTS us to THINK he is he hid and did nothing.

Suddenly when the property taxes came out and people yelled well he came forward as the savior. Forget it . . .Mitch is NOT a savior, he is a snake! This was his way of getting a penny added to the sales tax. To add to the sales tax he wanted more control of the schools; I hope the people in our legislature do not allow him to have it. He has already cut too many teachers, taken too much money from our schools which deny education from Indiana children.

And back to those juveniles in the IDOC, yea, he is the force behind lack of custody meaning they are not safe from other students who are predators; and staff who are predators. Look closely, if they would allow you to walk in today and inspect all the books without someone breathing down your back and trying to cover up their lies, you would also find they are not meeting those students’ educational needs. But, Mitch doesn’t care; he does not see these juveniles as being as important as his own children.

I would say Mitch has turned out to be a one man disaster. He doesn’t understand people from Indian, which was clear from day one and shoving the time change down the throat of the people from this state. Now how about the good people of Indiana being so kind as to send a message in November to Mitch so he can fill up his mobile home (see how much that will cost you) and head on east out of Indiana. Mitch is not from Indiana and does not understand the people in Indiana; he does not have ownership in Indiana. From the idea of changing Indiana time, to selling the toll roads, and adding a penny to the sales tax and telling people that would take care of property tax. Mitch thinks he is one slick easterner who has pulled a fast one on a bunch of farm boy hicks. Well, let’s see if that is true come November.

Indiana, it is time to come out and vote in November.

[Mike Bowman]

R voting in the D primary ( only real race in town to vote for :) )

Hillary over Obama
( Obama wins NC and the battle goes to the convention ! )

Jill over Jim

Woody over Andre

David O's grassroots pay off with 35% of vote. 33 for Andre. 20 for Woody, and Carolene and others have the other 12.

I'm a republican...I am voting for the other party..:)..I am tired of seeing what our current Governor is doing with our State employees...within the Department of corrections....He has raised taxes...not new taxes...He has sold part of our state...my grandchildren will pay the price of that one...He might have made our streets safer...but the Department of Corrections is in a mess...

[Welson]

Woody Myers will upset Carson but by a very small margin. Carson will call for a revote. My prediction, Myers will win after the revote. Carson will then claim political fraud.

[Region Geezer Rocker]

Our Hammond newspaper did a poll and showed Hillary with a double digit lead in NW Indiana. They predicted a Clinton victory in Indiana by 9 points.

[Flipper]

As you know. I'm a republican. I plan to vote for Obama so I hopefully won't have to ever see Hillary or Slick Willy again on the television or in the news. As for this fall. I am leaning towards Obama.
Would you believe it Jen.
Love Flipper