taking down words

Fact Check: Indiana Trails The Nation In Personal Income Growth

Reality?

Check.

Out Of Touch: Reality, Meet Guv. Guv, Meet Reality. Go Have A Chat.

There was a time when the Guv blamed Democrats for Indiana's economic woes. Now, he's all about blaming, um, the economy for our economic woes and promising, as he did with DST, that his burden-shifting property tax plan, which will cause local governments to raise taxes or cut services, and the long-term lease of the Indiana Toll Road, which was signed into law almost two years ago, will bring jobs here.

Heaven forbid he actually just admit that we rank 44th in the nation for job growth rate since he took office. Heaven forbid he actually reach out to the working men and women of this state and tell them that he understands things aren't easy for them, but he's doing his best to help them. Heaven forbid he stop making things up and accept a little responsibility for the current state of affairs. (Yes, responsibility. He was, after all, one of the yes-men who helped get us into this war that's now costing us, like, $5,000 a minute.)

But no. Here's what he's saying instead:

Gov. Mitch Daniels said he feels a recession wouldn't hit Indiana as hard as other states, citing recent state changes for his optimism.

Daniels spoke to the Valparaiso Rotary Club on Tuesday, and highlighted what he called the short-term benefits of his Major Moves project and the changes in property taxes.

The property tax caps that the state legislature recently approved will help encourage business growth during a period of possible economic crisis, Daniels told the audience.

"What business doesn't prize certainty for making its own investment?" he said.

He added that property-tax reform also comes at a good time for struggling homeowners, giving them more money to spend and help the economy keep going.

The same holds true for Major Moves, Daniels said, which will help pay for continued road work -- and the incomes of construction workers -- for the next year, when other states are struggling to find the money for infrastructure.

He also pointed to data showing that all of Indiana's neighbors are struggling with budget cuts and growing unemployment rates. Unlike them, though, Indiana has a surplus and a decreasing unemployment rate.

"There's a lot of evidence we'll be able to ride (a recession) out a little bit better," he said.

Really Mattering: WashPo Writer Calls Indiana Race For Prez "A Fair Fight"

It's pretty cool to matter in the presidential race, but Indiana is shaping up to be the next must-win state where neither candidate has the clear advantage. The Washington Post's Anne Kornblut reports from Evansville:

Something unusual appears to be developing in the Democratic presidential race in this state: a fair fight.

Wedged between Illinois, which is Sen. Barack Obama's home state, and Ohio, which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton dominated on March 4, Indiana may be the one state remaining on the primary calendar where both candidates begin with a roughly equal chance of coming out ahead.

That fact alone makes it stand out from states such as Pennsylvania, where the playing field for the April 22 contest offers big advantages to Clinton (N.Y.), or the Oregon race a month later, which clearly tilts toward Obama.

In Indiana, Obama has a home-field advantage, while Clinton has the backing of the popular Sen. Evan Bayh and may have an edge on the kind of economic issues that are likely to dominate the discussion before the state's Democrats vote on May 6.

"If I had to pick -- and I'm not usually shy about saying who's going to win -- I couldn't tell you today," said Rep. Joe Donnelly, a Democrat who represents Indiana's 2nd District and has not committed to either candidate. Others entrenched in Indiana politics put Clinton ahead, if only slightly.

The state's Democrats have reacted to their sudden relevance with enthusiasm -- thousands waited in the cold to see Clinton at several stops last week -- and the campaigns have responded by pouring resources into the state. Obama arrived here first, making an appearance March 15 in Plainfield, and the Clinton campaign is launching an attempt to limit his following on campuses with its own blitz on the numerous colleges and universities around the state. On Monday, Chelsea Clinton is set to help kick off the effort, appearing with her father, former president Bill Clinton, in South Bend before traveling to Bloomington.

Let The Speechifying Begin: A Few Photos From The Dyngus Day Fun

Dyngus Day is over, and TDW is tired, but not so tired that she doesn't have time to upload a few photos from the two venues -- the West Side Democratic Club and the Hoosier Tap -- where she joined with fellow Democrats to drink a few beers and chat about politics this morning and afternoon.

Both places were packed, especially the former one, where former President Bill Clinton and former First Kid Chelsea Clinton talked up wife/mom Hillary Clinton's campaign. Former Indiana Gov. Joe Kernan and former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend also heaped praise on Mrs. Clinton.

Former U.S. Rep. and 9/11 Commission member Tim Roemer spoke as a surrogate for presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and both gubernatorial candidates, South Bend native Jim Schellinger and former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, got their turn at the podium.

Schellinger and his wife, Laura, showed up a bit later at the Hoosier Tap to share in the festivities there. (For her part, that's where TDW wound up because it was nearby and not swarming with people with plastic cords in their ears.) Those photos after the jump, but first, a few from the West Side Democratic Club:

What Recession? Indiana Ranks In Top Three For Jobless Claims

UPDATE: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger released the following statement in response to today's news:

"Our nation and state are caught in the throes of a financial crisis, and it's hitting average working Hoosiers the hardest.  We must pick up our efforts to assist those that are unemployed as well as our efforts to retain jobs in the first place.

"As we fight to maintain and attract good-paying jobs to Indiana, we also need to reach out to those displaced workers who may need additional training or education to succeed in this economy.

"And although we may look to the technology sector and other expanding fields to bring new positions to our state, we must not lose sight of our manufacturing and industrial base.

"Right now, Hoosiers need assurance that their elected officials understand how it feels not to know where the next rent or mortgage payment is coming from and that those same elected officials are committed to fighting to improve our ailing economy by recruiting new jobs, working with existing companies to retain jobs and developing a workforce training program that begins with early education and continues throughout adulthood.

"As Governor, these will be one of my top priorities in the Governor's Office.  It's time we Pick Up Indiana."

This story doesn't exactly support the Guv's contention that all is well with our economy, does it?

The number of newly laid off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in nearly two months with Indiana in the top three states, providing more evidence that the weak economy is having an adverse impact on the labor market.

The Labor Department said today that applications for jobless benefits totaled 378,000 last week. That was an increase of 22,000 from the previous week and was a far bigger jump than had been expected.

The four-week average for new claims rose to 365,250, which was the highest level since a flood of claims caused by the 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes.

For the week ending March 8, 28 states and territories reported an increase in jobless claims and 25 reported declines. The states with the biggest increases were California, up by 3,755; Michigan, up by 2,236, and Indiana, with an increase of 2,158. The layoffs in Michigan and Indiana were attributed in part to higher layoffs in the auto industry.

The current economic slowdown, which many economists believe has already turned into a full-blown recession, is starting to show up in the labor market in terms of higher layoffs and weaker hiring numbers.

Pedaling Back: He Meant For That To Be A One-Year War Spending Estimate

The Guv must be worried that his record of fiscal predictions with respect to the Iraq war might come back to bite him in the butt this year. He sent his chief flacktoid to revise history in this story, which ran in yesterday's Fort Wayne News-Sentinel:

Stiglitz accused the Bush administration of low-balling the cost of the war before the invasion, singling out the $50 billion to $60 billion dollar estimate by Gov. Mitch Daniels, then director of the Office of Management and Budget. In 2002, Daniels said a $200 billion estimate by then-White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey was "very, very high."

On Tuesday, Daniels spokeswoman Jane Jankowski said Daniels' estimate was only for the cost of one year. "He didn't try to extrapolate any future figures," she said.

Jankowski said Indiana had a $1 billion surplus at the end of the last fiscal year and had no comment on what effect, if any, the cost of the war has had on Indiana.

Ooooh, bonus points for Jane! Not only did she try to spin the whole "very, very high" thing, but she also got the $1 billion surplus lie in there. Nice work.

How The Mighty Have Fallen: From Wolfie's Stylist To Online Columnist

What do you do when you go from "PR genius" to washed up in Washington because you got all caught up in the big ethics scandal at the World Bank?

Apparently, you come back home and write long, boring columns for Brian Howey's website. (Hat tip, kind reader.)

Oh, Kevin Kellems, you knew that any mention of your stunning fall from grace would have to include this video clip:

More Shock, Less Awe: The Guv Is Not The Fiscal Genius He Thinks He Is

Tomorrow marks the five-year anniversary of our invasion into Iraq. In case you'd forgotten about the Guv's involvement in the fiscal planning for what was supposed to be a quick infusion of democracy, the San Francisco Chronicle reminds us:

The price tag in Iraq now is more than double the cost of the Korean War and a third more expensive than the Vietnam War, which lasted 12 years. Stiglitz and Bilmes calculate that it will be at least 10 times as costly as the 1991 Gulf War and twice the cost of World War I.

Only World War II was more expensive. That four-year war - in which 16 million U.S. troops were deployed on two fronts, fighting against Germany and Japan - cost about $5 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars.

The latest numbers are a far cry from the cost estimates made by war supporters in the run-up to the March 2003 invasion.

In September 2002, White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey told the Wall Street Journal the war would cost between $100 billion and $200 billion. He was immediately excoriated by others in the administration. White House budget director Mitch Daniels called the estimate "very, very high." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called it "baloney."

It's The Economy, Stupid: Don't Look For A Rebound Any Time Soon

This is not the kind of story the Guv wants to see heading into an election cycle, given that he premised his entire 2004 campaign on how awesome the economy would be if only Hoosiers voted him into office.

Rate cuts and bailouts signal the Fed is trying to shore up the economy. But it won't speed up immediately. Torpid stock prices, rising commodity costs, sky-high fuel bills and the subprime shakeout will each bedevil the country for months, economists say.

"We could be in this bad economy for all of 2008 and into 2009,'' said economist Ken Goldstein of the Conference Board, a New York research group funded by major corporations. "It certainly is dark out there. There are storm clouds. But the sky is not falling in."

Try telling retired autoworker David Huff.

He took an early retirement from bankrupt Delphi Kokomo in 2006 and decided to enter a trade with a secure future: residential real estate.

Then the subprime implosion dried up the housing market. Business withered for his new venture in Fortville, Home Inspectors LLC, which provides customers with reports on possible defects in homes they might buy.

"This thing hasn't bottomed out yet," Huff said of the housing market.

Unfortunately, economists say, he's right.

A word to the trolls who will invariably show up and yammer on about how the Guv can't be blamed for this economy: You're sorta right, but not entirely so.

Daniels made such a stink back on the campaign trail about job losses and our fiscal situation, and he needs to be held accountable for his promises.

Also, it's hard to imagine that Dubya, who schooled the Guv in politics and fiscal irresponsibility and then sent him back to us, doesn't bear a substantial part of the blame for getting us into an expensive, needless war with no end in sight.

No one told him you can't just keep printing more money when you run out.

Anyway, the economy already is front and center in the presidential race, and it will likely occupy the same space on the gubernatorial front. Expect the Guv to talk a lot about how we're "leading in the Midwest" and how our unemployment rate is below the national average. Don't expect him to focus on crappy jobs with no benefits or the fact that we are at the back of the national pack for job and personal income growth.

You Got Robbed: Treasurer Stole Up To A Million Bucks From NRCC Coffers

Maybe this is why the National Republican Congressional Committee didn't have any money to spend on Jo[h]n Elrod's race:

The former treasurer for the National Republican Congressional Committee transferred as much as $1 million in committee funds into his personal and business accounts, officials announced today, describing a scheme that could prove to be one of the largest campaign frauds in recent history.

For at least four years, Christopher J. Ward, who is under investigation by the FBI, used wire transfers to funnel money out of the NRCC and into other political committees he controlled, then shifted the funds into his own personal accounts, the committee said.

"The evidence we have today indicated we have been deceived and betrayed for a number of years by a highly respected and trusted individual," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), NRCC chairman.

All joking aside (it's doubtful the NRCC would have supported a dud candidate like Elrod even if they'd been flush with cash), TDW is convinced that people who steal from their employers -- particularly if those employers happen to be political parties -- will spend eternity in a special circle of Hades.

First of all, how in God's name did you not think you're going to get caught?

Second, what made you think your employer's bank account should become your personal slush fund?

And finally, how could you be so incredibly selfish to put your own needs and wants ahead of the mission of the organization for which you work?